Wednesday, October 02, 2013

A Better Way Than Shutdown

What's the goal of government today?  What are they trying to achieve?  What is #1 on the list?

Washington is in gridlock because the parties are holding Obamacare, short term funding of the government, long-term budget balancing, AND the world economy in gridlock.  Both sides have a hand on every area, it is a bipartisan effort to achieve nothing.

The reason they can't move forward is that without a stated #1 priority goal, NOTHING can proceed in a sustainable way.  You have four major issues that cannot be solved unless one of them is chosen as the first priority.

Why do you have to pick just one?  Because a rope pulled two ways breaks and a bar pushed on each end bends on itself.

If short term budget balancing is the priority, Obamacare hurts not helps, and you have to continue short term financial policies that make long-term budget balancing a "NASA might be able to put a scope on it" distant dream.

If long-term budget balancing is the goal, ObamaCare and the short term financing strategies of the Fed must be eliminated yesterday.  Assuming you prefer find that balance within your lifetime.

If Obamacare is the main goal, both short-term and long-term budgets pictures must be looked at with an entirely new perspective and other social priorities must scale back to accommodate this new and ambitious endeavor.

Neither party, Democrat nor GOP, can win on all fronts.  It will require middle ground and wisdom, and Washington is often short (read: fresh out) on both.

If the lawmakers in Washington want to make it through this quagmire with a chance, they must choose the economy.  Not choose either side's preferred direction to manipulate it, but rather how to breathe deep and allow the economy to function properly.  If who gets credit matters more than success, failure is on you like stink on pooh.

Any outside force effects the economy, but ONLY on a short term basis; regardless of the direction (too fast or too slow) the market will correct itself and find equilibrium.  The economy will ALWAYS adjust to find balance.  Boost labor wages and soon all wages will adjust through inflation to represent a return on value.  Raise interest rates to stop inflation and risk/reward asset values fall.

There is no five-second sound bite.  It's only a series of small choices that allow people to be creative and brave combined with a series of small controls to keep capital flowing towards creative and brave people.

Funds given from the government will NEVER be as well stewarded as money from an investor who expects a return.  But an investor's money needs to be put to risk to find reasonable reward, not buried in US T-Bills that can so far still return 100% of principal.  

The government must get out of the way of the union of capital and ideas.  As the government tromps around in a small creek it creates surges of capital away from and into ideas.  Slowly and steadily our leaders need to allow the stream to flow on its own, with oversight and guidance to keep gators at bay.

Will entrepreneurs occasionally get burned, without doubt.  Will bold investors make billions, of course.  Neither of those things are inherently bad; in the slot machine of life, people bust and people jackpot.  In the marketplace, bad ideas need to be punished and good ideas rewarded.  That's the only type of fair in the entire world.  And as long as capital and ideas continue to mix, we will find new ways to make money and new ways to raise the standard of living through products and services at cheaper prices.

I just watched a You Tube video where Harry Reid nearly "admits" that the tax system is voluntary.  The video creator is ecstatic thinking he can now pin dirty Harry to the wall.  Harry should have sat up in his chair and proclaimed, "It's absolutely a voluntary system.  We choose to create income by accepting it in exchange for our goods or services.  If you don't want to pay tax, simply don't work and don't create income."  And if that's your tax avoidance strategy, that's precisely when you "need" an underfunded government the most.  How long will the BRIC nations choose to buy "near zero" t-bills as opposed to any other asset in the world... bold strategy, Cotton.

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