Farm Bill Complexity: Complete fARCe or Cluster PLuC

I've spent the better part of a day studying and trying to understand the latest Farm Bill. Learning the differences between PLC and ARC. There are two sides to my thinking as I dig into this convoluted monstrosity:

1. If I can crack the code and figure out the nuances of these programs, I can gain a huge advantage over competing cash renters. In turn, I could parlay that opportunity into significant profits. I can really benefit from this.
   
2. Why does such a simple and honest goal require such a complicated package? Who could possibly participate in this and sleep soundly in the confidence of their enrollment decision?

The first farm bill was intended to provide certainty for a nation's food supply and a safety net for it's most vulnerable producers. At least that's the idea we'd all like to believe.

Corn harvest in Iowa - October 2014

More, More, MOAR!

Every farmer wants more.

More bushels, more acres, more pounds, more gain per day.

More deductions, more pre-payments, more Section 179, more 0% financing.

More trait stacks, more disease resistance, more drought tolerance, more chemicals crop protection.

More storage, more $B $G $F $W, more precision, more data.

But does any of it guarantee more profit, more bottom line?

The advertisements want to help you get more of what THEY are measuring, but does that make YOUR business better?

What if the program for more bushels per acre meant less profit per acre?

What if the requirements for more pounds per calf meant less profit per cow?

Know what you're measuring and why.

Increasing An Average

Grain farmers: Do you put more focus on tweaking/optimizing highest yielding fields or improving your lowest? Why? #AgChat
— Kristopher Hauswirth (@kfhauswirth) December 1, 2014

Ways To Increase An Average

• Push the highest outlier even farther out, into the long tail.
• Pull the lowest outlier in, towards the fat part of the curve.
• Nudge most or all of the instances a little step higher.

Which option provides the greatest benefit?

What does each option cost?

Do you even have enough information to know?

Because math is fun!